The excitement about Rubio is based more on his potential that on his stats. It’s harder to project NBA performance from Euroleague performance than from U.S. college stats, in part because former college players still outnumber former Euroleague players in the pros. Nonetheless, Jon Nichols of Basketball-Statistics.com compared European players’ stats in the Euroleague — a multinational tournament that levels the continental playing field between domestic leagues of disparate strength — with their eventual NBA stats and found that some are highly predictive. Three-point shooting, rebounds, assists and blocks are the most translatable from Europe to the NBA.
Using his calculations of how these stats translate, Nichols projected Rubio’s career performance before the draft. His expected numbers per 36 minutes were not the stuff of legend: an average of just 10 points, and three steals but also three turnovers. More promisingly, Nichols’s Box Score Prediction System projected Rubio would hand out almost seven assists per 36 minutes.
ESPN’s John Hollinger used a similar technique to translate European stats, and found that assist rates tend to rise upon moves to the U.S., but shooting percentage and scoring rate drop. That would make Rubio — who already has more assists and scores less than most star guards — an even more one-dimensional NBA player. (DraftExpress broke down Rubio’s weak jump-shooting.) Overall, European players’ performance drops 30% in the NBA.
These troubling numbers help explain why Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus argues that Rubio’s decision to stay in Spain may be a boon for Minnesota. “How can it be considered a bad thing that Rubio will spend the next two years developing and maturing physically in Spain on Barca’s dime?” Pelton asks. “When he does come over, Rubio will be better prepared to contribute immediately.”
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