Bucks acquire Delfino and Ukic, but does it matter? NBA Latest News: Bucks acquire Delfino and Ukic, but does it matter?

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Bucks acquire Delfino and Ukic, but does it matter?

Now that we've had a few hours to digest the reported four-player trade between the Bucks and Raps, the most obvious question is, "How much does it really matter?"
Star-divide
I don't mean that in a nihilistic sense, just in a practical way--are the Bucks much different in the long or short term?
From a pure talent perspective, the answer would seem to be not really.  I admit to being somewhat seduced by the perpetually unfulfilled promise of Amir Johnson, and that alone made me disappointed to see this deal cross the wires.  The fact that Johnson's deal was expiring while the Bucks are giving Delfino two years guaranteed and a third team option year isn't a plus in my book, but it doesn't affect their cap or tax future all that substantially (assuming you already thought Sessions was a goner).
It's also been encouraging to see more positivity from Raptor fans on Delfino and Ukic than I expected.  But the reality seems to be that while either guy could be a serviceable and potentially even valuable rotation player, there's also a very good reason Bryan Colangelo didn't hesitate to part with them. Delfino had been surplus to requirements last summer and was unlikely to come back with DeMar DeRozan now on board, while Ukic was also kicked to curb after the Jarrett JackAs Kelly Dwyer put it: signing. 
It's not that Milwaukee made a bad deal, here. It's just that Toronto made a very good one. Johnson and newly-acquired Reggie Evans(notes) will provide carom insurance that is badly needed on a team full of long rebound-creators, and as promising as Ukic looked at times, his bottom line just wasn't worth Toronto's time.
Delfino is destined to get some burn simply because he's willing (and occasionally able) to make three pointers, a skill the Bucks are lacking, especially at SF.  Ukic meanwhile seems destined to rack up his fair share of DNPs this year, though the reality is he's also not light years behind Luke Ridnour and Brandon Jennings right now.  And no, that's not a compliment to Ukic so much as a testament to Ridnour's mediocrity and Jennings' youth. 
But while the trade itself might be somewhat shrug-worthy, the more interesting thing is what the deal suggests about everyone else on the Bucks' roster. 
1) Thomas and Warrick made Johnson expendable.   There had been doubt about whether Kurt Thomas would ever suit up for the Bucks, but in the last week the Bucks have made a point of emphasizing Thomas will in fact have a role on the 09/10 Bucks.  Whether he makes it past the trade deadline is another question, but Thomas would seem capable of 10-15 mpg as a backup PF/C, especially in light of the atrocious work they got from their non-Bogut centers last year.  If Thomas gets a chunk of the minutes that Johnson was supposed to get it will probably be a good thing, though I'd still have much preferred to send Thomas north rather than Johnson.
And as Jeremy points out, Warrick's unexpected arrival meant the Bucks had more depth at PF than they originally thought they would.  I never really understood the talk of Warrick playing some SF, and given the Bucks just shipped out a PF in exchange for a guy who can play some SF, I'm guessing the Bucks don't believe it either.
2) The Bucks really don't care about Sessions.  I've been assuming it's true while hoping it wasn't for some time, but the activity of August 17 wasn't encouraging on the Sessions front.  In one fell swoop the Bucks added both a backup point guard and a backup shooting guard, and probably cut into the available dollars they have under the luxury tax to re-sign Sessions as well. 
Because Weems could have been waived for about $550k in savings over the weekend (his $762k deal had just $174k in guarantees), the Bucks effectively shipped out just over $4.1 million in contracts and got back Ukic ($1.35 million) plus whatever Delfino's getting.  So if Delfino gets more than around $2.75 million as a first year salary, then the Bucks will have effectively added 09/10 salary through this deal.  And with Johnson gone it's also less likely the buy out Thomas, which could have saved $1.3 million as well (that's what Thomas would have gotten if he signed for the min elsewhere). 
3) The roster looks to be full.  The Bucks officially have 16 players currently under contract, including the expiring minimum deal of the injured Walter Sharpe.  He's currently the obvious candidate to be waived by the start of the regular season to get the Bucks to the maximum of 15 players, though the Bucks could certainly continue to make deals between now and then.  Aside from that, they don't have much flexibility in the way of non-guaranteed deals...none in fact.  Mark that down as yet another reason Sessions is probably gone.
I think it's usually pointless to carry 15 guaranteed salaries into the regular season when only 9-10 can get legit minutes every night, but at this point it appears that's the direction the Bucks are headed.  Ironically, they seem to have one of the league's best lineups from spots 10-15...but unfortunately that doesn't win you many games.
They could still buy out Thomas or perhaps Francisco Elson, but I'm guessing that's unlikely for the time being with Johnson already gone.  Here's a first swing at the 09/10 opening night depth chart, with the disclaimer that I'll penalize Jennings and Meeks for being youngsters:
PG: Ridnour/Jennings/Ukic
SG: Redd/Bell/Meeks
SF: Mbah a Moute/Delfino/Alexander
PF: Ilyasova/Warrick
C: Bogut/Thomas/Elson/Gadzuric

I honestly don't know how Delfino will shake up the 2/3 rotation, as it's very possible Delfino ends up getting burn at the 2 (more his natural position) and forces Bell or Meeks (sadly) out of the lineup.  And while I'd throw Thomas in as the backup center for now, that's mostly because I'm hoping to see a lot less of Elson and Gadzuric.  Where does Joe Alexander fit in all of this?  Who knows.  He'll still be fighting for minutes at the 3/4 spots, and with the lack of proven players at those positions he'll certainly get a chance to play--it's just a question of whether he can take advantage of it.
The Enigma of Carlos Delfino
As I mentioned in the initial post on this trade earlier today, Delfino was drafted and later signed by the Pistons during John Hammond's time as Joe Dumars' top deputy, so this would seem to have Hammond's fingerprints all over it.  In fact, when Hammond was first mentioned as a candidate for the Bucks' GM gig over a year ago, one of the first Google results I found on him was an April 2004 chat from Pistons.com where he discussed Delfino's development in Italy.  
Carlos is having a great season for his team in Italy. In fact as we speak, he is in Tel Aviv, Israel preparing to play in the European Final Four. We feel he will be a great fit with our team next year. The reason for saying this is that we think he can do two things, play backup two-guard, and play backup small forward to Tayshaun Prince. He is a tough competitor, he has a very good feel for the game, and knows how to play the game. For those reasons we are looking forward to having him next season.
Delfino was first discovered before the 2003 draft by Tony Ronzone, then the Pistons' director of international scouting. He passed along video of Delfino to Hammond and Dumars, who both loved his game and targeted him with their 25th overall selection in the '03 draft--23 picks after they notoriously selected Darko Milicic.  However, Delfino was unable to get out of his contract with Bologna, delaying his entry into the NBA by a season.  In three years in Detroit he eventually became a regular reserve, but never became the kind of player who could seriously challenge Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince for playing time.
His opportunities increased in 2007 when he was dealt to the Raptors for '09 and '11 second rounders, though it wasn't a breakout campaign per se.  Like his final year in Detroit, Delfino played in all 82 games, rebounded exceptionally well for a swingman, and was a fairly low-efficiency scorer (.397/.382/..744 for a 52.5% true shooting percentage).   His rebounding was probably the thing that surprised me most, as eyeballing his stats you wouldn't notice the fact that his rebound rates in 06/07 (11.5%) and 07/08 (11.0%) placed him in the top five among SGs and top 10 or so among SFs.  
As his highlight reel attests, he has the strength and athleticism to get up and finish around the rim, but his numbers also show he's not particularly effective around the bucket (.497 fg% in 07/08 on "inside" shots).  For a purportedly solid defender, Delfino's on/off and opponent stats are also a bit worrying. The Raps were better offensively and defensively with Delfino on the bench in 07/08, and his opponents put up notably better numbers in most categories.  Not encouraging.
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